2013年4月6日星期六

The long term, "dual" good industry


Global PV product prices fell sharply with the generous government subsidies of great relevance to Chinese enterprises through a great variety of government subsidies for global transport photovoltaic products, production capacity and technological progress but not a major factor. "Double reverse" if established, the PV market space was backlog, a large number of PV companies for fear of escape bankruptcy fate, enterprises and local governments clearly on this point is very afraid, but from another point of view, even if there is no European "double reverse", the Chinese PV business days but also good to go?

The author feels that the "double reverse" the establishment of the Chinese PV industry will have a long-term positive, "dual" out of a large number of backward production capacity, local governments are also unable to rescue the local enterprises, China's photovoltaic how to make solar panels industry reshuffle to end as soon as possible. Bankruptcy is to disappear from the market, not the so-called restructuring, first, the largest enterprise die or quit, qualify as true sense of the production can shrink.

Marino solar power systems integration company marketing director Liu Li talked about some time ago, the PV companies will also over 2056 of bitterness, I agree with this statement, because the local government under the auspices of the PV production capacity for a long time in the future will seriously exceeds demand, the profitability of the business will be no fundamental change. In other words, when the PV companies can get back on track depends on the speed of the production capacity out of, rather than the market growth rate, the market will not produce the so-called "outbreaks".

Europe "dual" Forced Chinese PV companies from the market point of view, we will let a large number of companies going bankrupt, the laws of the market alone can not, and we should welcome that. In early 2013, China's National Development and Reform Commission officially released the draft on distributed power plants and photovoltaic benchmark price down the photovoltaic benchmark price down about 25%, according to the Development and Reform Commission file, distributed power station subsidies less than expected, photovoltaic Policy downward trend very obvious.

Policy downlink power plant costs must be reduced, and PV companies to raise prices, and thus enhance their own profitability will completely contrary. Industry "shuffle" has ended, PV how to build solar panels companies also lack the power of prices, because in the context of reduced state subsidies raise prices is to increase the cost of establishment of the station, I am afraid that will be a rapid decline in PV installed capacity of China.

So there is a huge contradiction between the policy down the increase in selling prices and improved profitability of the business, corporate or sacrifice profits in exchange for the size of the industry, or at the expense of the installed capacity in exchange for their own interests, in short, as long as the photovoltaic technology is not a revolutionary change in the cost of production opportunity to not fall again, fish and bear's paw can not have both, PV companies in 2013 is difficult to reverse the loss of defeat. Based on the present situation in the industry, the photovoltaic did not warmer weather, this half-dead deadlock only take place in the second half of the year little changed, but the 2013 PV companies will continue to "huge loss" trend is a foregone conclusion.

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