Industry is facing a serious dilemma, two
coping styles. Externally, the Ministry of Commerce of China following
the solar grade polysilicon "double reverse" survey initiated by the
EU on November 1, on the 5th EU PV subsidy discriminatory measures submitted to
the WTO. Also, some Chinese manufacturers have begun to consider overseas
acquisitions, local factories, and the layout of the emerging PV markets of
Southeast Asia, Africa, the Middle East and Latin America
regions.
Internally, the government "Twelve
Five" solar panel photovoltaic power generation capacity target to 21GW, and
began to actively support distributed photovoltaic power generation and grid
(6MW and below capacity), 10 million kilowatts of installed 2015 target bit.
Some manufacturers have already started to invest in photovoltaic power plants.
Wang Sicheng, researcher at the Energy
Research Institute of National Development and Reform Commission, said that
Europe and the United States ,
Japan and other countries
and regions distributed photovoltaic power generation and grid to take the
absolute mainstream, contrary to the situation in China , accounting for the vast
majority, centralized.
Both he and the new energy industry
Minsheng Securities chief analyst Wang Haisheng, the photovoltaic born
applicable to distributed generation. High the western power station
transmission costs, distributed more viable. The latest government support of
distributed photovoltaic power generation is a positive attitude, and should be
affirmed. However, due to the policies and regulations of each provinces
reporting cap 500MW, the national total of about 15GW, a kWh subsidy of 0.4 to
0.6 yuan, may actually be 0.4 yuan. Therefore, the short-term the market will
not be explosive growth. Although the policy of the government can not
immediately solve the dilemma of the domestic manufacturers, "feel the
burn", but to some extent can play the role of "faith sustained.
Wang Sicheng that the Chinese PV market
since 2012, an average annual growth rate of 20.2% will enter a stable growth
period (see Figure 2). Distributed PV generation total PV market share from
30.3% in 2011, and gradually increased to 45.24% in 2015 and 54% in 2020. China
and the global photovoltaic market overcapacity situation is only temporary
difficulties in the current and future years, five years later, the market
demand will be greatly changed.
Wang Haisheng analysis of the optimal
choice of investors in the implementation of the policy in late 2014-2015 to
carry out a large-scale installation. Wang Sicheng and he and several other
speeches caught distributed photovoltaic power generation investment rate of
return solar
cell lower than the large ground-based power plant and Golden Sun project and
power station kWh subsidized prices, and the Internet part of the ability to
purchase the full amount and subsidies the uncertainty of the duration, so that
enterprises can not predict the return on investment is very risky, short-term
is difficult to stimulate investment enthusiasm (see Figure 3). Therefore, the
establishment of a stable and viable business model is the key to attracting
investors.
Wang Sicheng said National Grid has issued
a document to actively solve distributed PV Internet, which will make the
photovoltaic industry will benefit, but there will be some loss of national
grid, because it had money, and now no money. Wang Haisheng also agree with
this point of view, he said: "The important thing is that the provincial
and municipal grid branch has not distributed PV generation Internet included
in the annual internal performance assessment indicators, so the effect is
difficult to predict the actual implementation."
没有评论:
发表评论