According to the European Photovoltaic Industry Association (EIPA) forecast 2012 global PV market size 19.1GW, will reach 30GW by 2014. Per square meter component power 130W, 1MW assembly takes about backplane 07,690 square meters in 2012, the global demand for PV modules of 150 million square meters, is expected in 2014 will reach 240 million square meters, the annual compound the growth rate of 25.3%.
The backplane unit price is about 40 yuan / square meter, the backplane only 3% -5% of the component cost, coupled with high technical barriers so the price decline is relatively slow. We calculated a decline of 5% per annum, the 2012 market size of 60 billion and 8.7 billion in 2014, a compound annual growth rate of 20.2%.
The backplane industry is relatively high barriers to localization context, the company's production capacity put backplane technology drive business growth relatively high barriers to profitability, gross margin was 30%, the localization rate of less than 30%; upstream PVF film, higher technical barriers of PET film and EVA film, even more than the 40% gross margin, the localization rate of 10% -20%. The backplane market competition is more concentrated, the the international companies Isovoltaic, ToyalSolar Madico, Krempel well Taiflex five manufacturers accounted for nearly 80% market share. Elements of competition in the industry, including: product quality, long-term customer relationships and price. Domestic Suzhou race Ng, Suzhou come back to the natural rubber industry, Lucky Film Company has been able to produce a certain amount of backplane, the industry is in the process of import substitution, but still in its infancy, with foreign countries still have some gap.
Stable growth in short-term performance of the company backplane photovoltaic open space short term of long-term growth of the Company, the Company's fiber optic cable and the power solar charge controller cable business is still the main strong point of the company's performance, the continued implementation of broadband China "strategy and operators of transmission networks continued construction as well as the national smart grid construction to further advance will promote the stable development of the company's main light rods and submarine cable profit contribution will offset the decline in fiber prices to bring pressure to perform, to keep the company's 2013-2014 performance can be maintained at 20% steady growth.
Medium and long term, the company the backplane and distributed photovoltaic power generation business will open the company room to grow. Company backplane business will be put into operation in 13 years, 15 million square meters of production capacity will be gradually released, 40 million square meters of production capacity will be gradually released in the future, the output value of 1.6 billion. At the same time, the company distributed photovoltaic power generation system has been initially built, being phased in, and sustained bigger With the rapid growth of the industry needs as well as the size of the company in the future will support the company's long-term growth. In addition, the company's overseas business smoothly expand drive the company long-term and stable growth.
Earnings forecasts: taking into account the lower proportion of backplane and photovoltaic solar panels business and short-term uncertainty, performance prediction yet included, expected the company 2012-2014 EPS were 0.60,0.71,0.84 yuan, net profit compound annual growth rate reached 20% . Reviewing the company history of development in the past 10 years, the company has maintained a compound annual growth rate of 15-20%, the source of growth is positive expansion and steady development of the business and the businesses involved in the industry to achieve industry-leading, are company for the business development of the low-key practical and the spirit of excellence. In view of this, we are optimistic about the company in the photovoltaic industry development trend, and firmly in the company's medium and long-term solid growth.
Investment advice: the current stock price corresponds to 13 years of PE is only 12 times, mainly reflecting the long-term concerns of the market for optical fiber and cable industry, but we believe that the continued growth of the company long-term, once recognized by the market, the valuation has room for improvement, and continue to reaffirm the "overweight" rating .