According to the European Photovoltaic
Industry Association (EIPA) forecast 2012 global PV market size 19.1GW, will
reach 30GW by 2014. Per square meter component power 130W, 1MW assembly takes
about backplane 07,690 square meters in 2012, the global demand for PV modules
of 150 million square meters, is expected in 2014 will reach 240 million square
meters, the annual compound the growth rate of 25.3%.
The backplane unit price is about 40 yuan /
square meter, the backplane only 3% -5% of the component cost, coupled with
high technical barriers so the price decline is relatively slow. We calculated
a decline of 5% per annum, the 2012 market size of 60 billion and 8.7 billion
in 2014, a compound annual growth rate of 20.2%.
The backplane industry is relatively high
barriers to localization context, the company's production capacity put
backplane technology drive business growth relatively high barriers to
profitability, gross margin was 30%, the localization rate of less than 30%;
upstream PVF film, higher technical barriers of PET film and EVA film, even
more than the 40% gross margin, the localization rate of 10% -20%. The
backplane market competition is more concentrated, the the international
companies Isovoltaic, ToyalSolar Madico, Krempel well Taiflex five
manufacturers accounted for nearly 80% market share. Elements of competition in
the industry, including: product quality, long-term customer relationships and
price. Domestic Suzhou race Ng, Suzhou come back to the natural rubber
industry, Lucky Film Company has been able to produce a certain amount of
backplane, the industry is in the process of import substitution, but still in
its infancy, with foreign countries still have some gap.
Stable growth in short-term performance of
the company backplane photovoltaic open space short term of long-term growth of
the Company, the Company's fiber optic cable and the power solar charge controller cable business is
still the main strong point of the company's performance, the continued
implementation of broadband China "strategy and operators of transmission
networks continued construction as well as the national smart grid construction
to further advance will promote the stable development of the company's main
light rods and submarine cable profit contribution will offset the decline in
fiber prices to bring pressure to perform, to keep the company's 2013-2014
performance can be maintained at 20% steady growth.
Medium and long term, the company the
backplane and distributed photovoltaic power generation business will open the
company room to grow. Company backplane business will be put into operation in
13 years, 15 million square meters of production capacity will be gradually
released, 40 million square meters of production capacity will be gradually
released in the future, the output value of 1.6 billion. At the same time, the
company distributed photovoltaic power generation system has been initially
built, being phased in, and sustained bigger With the rapid growth of the
industry needs as well as the size of the company in the future will support
the company's long-term growth. In addition, the company's overseas business
smoothly expand drive the company long-term and stable growth.
Earnings forecasts: taking into account the
lower proportion of backplane and photovoltaic solar panels business and short-term
uncertainty, performance prediction yet included, expected the company
2012-2014 EPS were 0.60,0.71,0.84 yuan, net profit compound annual growth rate
reached 20% . Reviewing the company history of development in the past 10
years, the company has maintained a compound annual growth rate of 15-20%, the
source of growth is positive expansion and steady development of the business
and the businesses involved in the industry to achieve industry-leading, are
company for the business development of the low-key practical and the spirit of
excellence. In view of this, we are optimistic about the company in the
photovoltaic industry development trend, and firmly in the company's medium and
long-term solid growth.
Investment advice: the current stock price
corresponds to 13 years of PE is only 12 times, mainly reflecting the long-term
concerns of the market for optical fiber and cable industry, but we believe
that the continued growth of the company long-term, once recognized by the
market, the valuation has room for improvement, and continue to reaffirm the
"overweight" rating .
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