Last week, the industry strong optimism the price of silicon material, monocrystalline silicon wafers for two consecutive weeks, in addition to the national energy work conference, 2013 PV installed capacity of 10GW, small prices.
Price just move, we heard that Asia Silicon and
Sino-silicon these two broad polysilicon giant announced the resumption of
production, and low-cost sales. Silicon material prices also difficult, even if
the double reverse trend continues, and its capacity to go the pace will slow
down, not worth the candle. Luoyang
Combined with recent plate transaction, we believe that the strong optimism in the market, on the one hand, the slight fluctuations in the downward trend is recognized as a reversal (see the depth of our industry. "20,121,031 - PV solar charge controller industry investment strategy - the industry's late autumn, power plant development in the spring"), major negative while ignoring the recent possible: 1) grab loading soon to be over by early February, will return to the market in February Depression.
Listed company defaulting on its debt, the impact of the bankruptcy, delisting is not reflected in the number of listed companies may be substantial breach of contract and for impairment provision in the annual report, it is estimated that the hardest hit especially silicon, device link. 3) China's imports of silicon material ingots double reverse, it is significant Oolong behavior of silicon material (mainly GCL) short-term positive, but silicon, battery manufacturers profitability and shipments will cause more big pressure, the news will be determined in late February.
We are optimistic about the power solar panel plant investment usher in positive: 10GW installed capacity target of 2013 to formalize, Golden Sun and promote the growth of distributed generation in the short term is limited, the ground station will usher in a period of rapid development, continue to recommend to the technological headed power plant developers.
The photovoltaic market Lively: the polysilicon prices rose slightly, according to the PV solar cell Insights, nearly two weeks polysilicon than rose slightly, the cumulative increase of 3 to 5%. We think: Price is clearly up for the cost-driven, or aspects of polysilicon> silicon>
Battery. And part of the profits
of wafers, cells are diluted, real positive silicon material.
Price fluctuations reason, in addition to foreign polysilicon double reverse expectations, is nothing more than three superimposed doomsday grab loading effect: 1) the European double reverse retroactive period March; 2) Japanese rumors down subsidies; 3) domestic last year project closeout. The estimated grab loading soon to be over by early February, will return to the market in February Depression.
Ministry of Environmental Protection recently held 2012 annual total amount of major pollutants emission reduction verification accounted for video conferencing, to make arrangements for the year 2012 the total amount of major pollutants emission reduction verification accounting work, said Zhang Lijun, Vice Minister of the Ministry of Environmental Protection, the four pollutants is expected to be completed by annual targets, especially nitrogen oxides, is expected to be the turning point for the first time.
We believe that: 1) denitrification the subsidy intensity lower than expected, denitration industrial chain profit margins by squeezing. Prices are lower than expected, but lower subsidies will not have the "12th Five-Year period denitration transformation of the overall progress of the formation of too much negative impact, but industry profit margins squeezed. 2) denitrification market outbreak is imminent, you can choose to have higher defense industry segments. We believe that strong, the denitration industry chain professional, high barriers to entry, industry segments such as monitoring equipment is relatively small risk, higher performance uncertainty. The key recommendation Denitration the CEMS leading companies in the field of snow Dillon.
Transmission and distribution market Lively: State Grid 2012 grid investment of 305.4 billion yuan, electricity sales increased 5.2% year-on-year
We believe that: 1) grid investments in 2012 an increase of 1.3% is expected in 2013 year-on-year growth of about 4%, which UHVDC or will enter the building intensive period. 2) grid investment growth remain low, the total pressure of the electrical equipment industry, we are optimistic about the structural opportunities: the tight distribution network and to maintain prosperity intelligent substation in conjunction with the general direction of the people's livelihood and urbanization.