Last week, the industry strong optimism the
price of silicon material, monocrystalline silicon wafers for two consecutive
weeks, in addition to the national energy work conference, 2013 PV installed
capacity of 10GW, small prices.
Price just move, we heard that Asia Silicon
and Luoyang
Sino-silicon these two broad polysilicon giant announced the resumption of
production, and low-cost sales. Silicon material prices also difficult, even if
the double reverse trend continues, and its capacity to go the pace will slow
down, not worth the candle.
Combined with recent plate transaction, we
believe that the strong optimism in the market, on the one hand, the slight
fluctuations in the downward trend is recognized as a reversal (see the depth
of our industry. "20,121,031 - PV solar charge controller industry investment strategy - the
industry's late autumn, power plant development in the spring"), major
negative while ignoring the recent possible: 1) grab loading soon to be over by
early February, will return to the market in February Depression.
Listed company defaulting on its debt, the
impact of the bankruptcy, delisting is not reflected in the number of listed
companies may be substantial breach of contract and for impairment provision in
the annual report, it is estimated that the hardest hit especially silicon,
device link. 3) China's imports of silicon material ingots double reverse, it
is significant Oolong behavior of silicon material (mainly GCL) short-term
positive, but silicon, battery manufacturers profitability and shipments will
cause more big pressure, the news will be determined in late February.
We are optimistic about the power solar panel plant
investment usher in positive: 10GW installed capacity target of 2013 to
formalize, Golden Sun and promote the growth of distributed generation in the
short term is limited, the ground station will usher in a period of rapid
development, continue to recommend to the technological headed power plant
developers.
The photovoltaic market Lively: the
polysilicon prices rose slightly, according to the PV solar cell Insights, nearly two
weeks polysilicon than rose slightly, the cumulative increase of 3 to 5%. We
think: Price is clearly up for the cost-driven, or aspects of polysilicon>
silicon> Battery . And part of the profits
of wafers, cells are diluted, real positive silicon material.
Price fluctuations reason, in addition to
foreign polysilicon double reverse expectations, is nothing more than three
superimposed doomsday grab loading effect: 1) the European double reverse
retroactive period March; 2) Japanese rumors down subsidies; 3) domestic last
year project closeout. The estimated grab loading soon to be over by early
February, will return to the market in February Depression.
Ministry of Environmental Protection
recently held 2012 annual total amount of major pollutants emission reduction
verification accounted for video conferencing, to make arrangements for the
year 2012 the total amount of major pollutants emission reduction verification
accounting work, said Zhang Lijun, Vice Minister of the Ministry of
Environmental Protection, the four pollutants is expected to be completed by
annual targets, especially nitrogen oxides, is expected to be the turning point
for the first time.
We believe that: 1) denitrification the
subsidy intensity lower than expected, denitration industrial chain profit
margins by squeezing. Prices are lower than expected, but lower subsidies will
not have the "12th Five-Year period denitration transformation of the
overall progress of the formation of too much negative impact, but industry
profit margins squeezed. 2) denitrification market outbreak is imminent, you
can choose to have higher defense industry segments. We believe that strong,
the denitration industry chain professional, high barriers to entry, industry
segments such as monitoring equipment is relatively small risk, higher performance
uncertainty. The key recommendation Denitration the CEMS leading companies in
the field of snow Dillon.
Transmission and distribution market
Lively: State Grid 2012 grid investment of 305.4 billion yuan, electricity
sales increased 5.2% year-on-year
We believe that: 1) grid investments in
2012 an increase of 1.3% is expected in 2013 year-on-year growth of about 4%,
which UHVDC or will enter the building intensive period. 2) grid investment
growth remain low, the total pressure of the electrical equipment industry, we
are optimistic about the structural opportunities: the tight distribution
network and to maintain prosperity intelligent substation in conjunction with
the general direction of the people's livelihood and urbanization.
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